A Chinese ETF Anti-Bubble
If you think the Chinese stock market is overvalued, ProFunds Group is with you.
如果你认为中国股市估值过高，那你的看法同ProFunds Group是一致的。
Today, the Bethesda, Md., fund manager will introduce an ‘ultrashort’ China exchange-traded fund, an investment designed to rise in value when Chinese stocks fall, making it easier for investors to place bearish bets.
周四，这家位于马里兰州的基金公司将推出一只“超空”中国交易所买卖基金(ETF)，该基金的价值在中国股市下跌时上涨，使投资者更容易进行卖空操作。
The appearance of the fund, called ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF, means fund marketers think U.S. investors might be ready to turn against what has been a red-hot investment this year.
这只基金名为ProShares UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF，它的推出意味着基金发行方认为, 美国投资者对今年这个热点投资市场的看法或许即将发生逆转。
As if to underline the point, ProFunds, which specializes in funds that offer magnified and inverse returns relative to well-known stock benchmarks, doesn’t plan a bullish China ETF — just one that goes ‘short,’ betting against Chinese stocks.
似乎是为了强调这点，ProFunds并不计划推出做多中国股市的ETF，而仅是推出了这只做空中国股市的ETF。
ProFunds has also followed that strategy with some broader international offerings, and will add a bearish Japan fund, too. Chief Executive Michael Sapir says he has high hopes the China fund will catch on as a tool for ‘bubble popping,’ a reference to the recent run-up in Chinese stocks, which he compares to the extraordinary run-up in U.S. stocks in 1999.
ProFunds也面向其他国际市场采取了这一策略，并将增加做空日本股市的基金。其首席执行长迈克尔•萨皮尔(Michael Sapir)说，他对这只中国基金将成为刺破泡沫的工具之一抱有厚望。他认为近期中国股票的上扬同1999年时美国科技股的最后疯狂相类似。
The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund — which follows the same 25 Hong Kong-traded stocks that the ProFunds ETF will bet against — is up 76% so far this year, according to Morningstar Inc. The fund’s annual returns have averaged 57% over the past three years.
晨星公司(Morningstar Inc.)的数据显示，iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund今年以来上涨了76%，在过去三年里，该基金的年平均回报率为57%。这只基金跟踪的在香港交易所上市的25只股票正好是ProFunds ETF今后要做空的股票。
Mr. Sapir sees signs U.S. investors may be getting wary. Despite the impressive returns, investors have yanked about 2 million from three China ETFs tracked by AMG Data Services so far this year through the end of October.
萨皮尔看到了一些美国投资者正变得更加谨慎的迹象。尽管回报率十分可观，但从今年年初到10月底，投资者已经从AMG Data Services跟踪的三只中国ETF中赎回了约1.62亿美元。
That goes against the grain. Investors have poured .8 billion into international stock ETFs as a group in 2007. The funds now hold about 6 billion, according to AMG.
这与人们当前的做法背道而驰。2007年至今，投资国际股票的ETF共吸引了328亿美元的新增资金。AMG称，这些基金目前共持有约1,760亿美元。
Not everyone thinks betting against China is an easy call.
并非所有人都认为做空中国股票可以轻松获利。
‘There may be a bubble, but it’s not like the 1990s, where these companies have no earnings,’ says Zachary Karabell, co-manager of Alger China-U.S. Growth Fund.
Alger中美增长基金的联席经理扎切里•卡拉贝尔(Zachary Karabell)指出，中国股市可能存在泡沫，但这与上世纪90年代的情形不同，当时那些公司都没有收益。
While stock prices may have temporarily outstripped profits of Chinese companies, earnings are still increasing at a hefty rate, reflecting growth in the Chinese economy, he says.
他表示，尽管中国公司的收益水平可能暂时无法支撑其股价，但收益仍在迅猛增长，这反映了中国经济的成长性。
Investors that try to predict the short-term direction of Chinese stock prices could get burned if prices — as they did in February — fall then quickly snap back. The new ProFunds ETF, which won’t just bet against the Chinese stock market, but also magnify those returns, could pose an extra risk.
如果中国股市像2月底时那样，突然暴跌然后又迅速反弹，那么那些试图预测中国股市短期走势的投资者可能会损失惨重。新的ProFunds ETF不但做空中国股市，而且还会放大收益或亏损，因此可能带来额外的风险。
The aim of the fund will be to rise 2% on a day when the index of Chinese stocks it follows falls 1%, meaning the returns will reflect both the reverse of the index’s returns and the effect of financial leverage, as if the investor had borrowed money to double down.
当ProFunds ETF追踪的中国股指的日跌幅达到1%时，前者的日涨幅将达到2%，这意味着其回报率不但同指数的回报率相反，还反映了金融杠杆工具的作用。
Exchange-traded funds resemble index-oriented mutual funds and trade on an exchange like a stock. Because U.S. ETFs trade when stock markets in China and other parts of Asia are closed, ETF’s intraday prices usually reflect U.S. traders’ views of how those stocks will perform when markets reopen.
ETF类似于指数型共同基金，也像股票一样在交易所上市交易。由于美国ETF是在中国和亚洲其他股市休市时进行交易的，因此ETF的盘中价格通常反映了美国交易员对市场重新开盘后这些股票将如何表现的看法。
